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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
AI Foundation Model for Time Series with Innovations Repr...
Lang Tong, Xinyi Wang · 2025-10-02 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

This paper introduces an Artificial Intelligence (AI) foundation model for time series in engineering applications, where causal operations are required for real-time monitoring and control. Since engineering time series are governed by physical, rather than linguistic, laws, large-language-model-based AI foundation models may be ineffective or inefficient. Building on the classical innovations representation theory of Wiener, Kallianpur, and Rosenblatt, we propose Time Series GPT (TS-GPT) -- an innovations-representation-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for engineering monitoring and control. As an example of foundation model adaptation, we consider Probabilistic Generative Forecasting, which produces future time series samples from conditional probability distributions given past realizations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TS-GPT in forecasting real-time locational marginal prices using historical data from U.S. independent system operators.