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Abstract:Doubly robust estimators are widely used for estimating average treatment effects and other linear summaries of regression functions. While consistency requires only one of two nuisance functions to be estimated consistently, asymptotic normality for linear functionals typically requires sufficiently fast convergence of both. We address this mismatch by showing that calibrating the nuisance estimators within a doubly robust procedure can yield doubly robust asymptotic normality. We introduce the idea of calibrated debiased machine learning (DML) and propose a specific implementation in which standard DML is augmented with a simple isotonic regression adjustment. We show that, under a partial orthogonality condition, a calibrated DML estimator remains asymptotically normal if either the regression function or Riesz representer of the functional is estimated sufficiently well, allowing the other to converge arbitrarily slowly or even inconsistently. We also propose a bootstrap-assisted method for constructing confidence intervals, enabling doubly robust inference without additional nuisance estimation. In a range of semi-synthetic benchmark datasets, calibrated DML reduces bias and improves coverage relative to standard DML. Our method can be integrated into existing DML pipelines by adding just a few lines of code to calibrate cross-fitted estimates via isotonic regression.

Submission history

From: Lars Van Der Laan [view email]
[v1] Tue, 5 Nov 2024 03:32:30 UTC (179 KB)
[v2] Fri, 27 Jun 2025 18:36:47 UTC (117 KB)
[v3] Thu, 20 Aug 2026 21:21:48 UTC (148 KB)