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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Probabilistic model-error assessment of deep learning pro...
Muzammil Hussain Rammay, Sergey Alyaev, Ahmed H Elsheikh · 2022-05-25 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The advent of fast sensing technologies allows for real-time model updates in many applications where the model parameters are uncertain. Bayesian algorithms, such as ensemble smoothers, offer a real-time probabilistic inversion accounting for uncertainties. However, they rely on the repeated evaluation of the computational models, and deep neural network (DNN) based proxies can be useful to address this computational bottleneck. This paper studies the effects of the approximate nature of the deep learned models and associated model errors during the inversion of extra-deep borehole electromagnetic (EM) measurements, which are critical for geosteering. Using a deep neural network (DNN) as a forward model allows us to perform thousands of model evaluations within seconds, which is very useful for quantifying uncertainties and non-uniqueness in real-time. While significant efforts are usually made to ensure the accuracy of the DNN models, it is known that they contain unknown model errors in the regions not covered by the training data. When DNNs are utilized during inversion of EM measurements, the effects of the model errors could manifest themselves as a bias in the estimated input parameters and, consequently, might result in a low-quality geosteering decision. We present numerical results highlighting the challenges associated with the inversion of EM measurements while neglecting model error. We further demonstrate the utility of a recently proposed flexible iterative ensemble smoother in reducing the effect of model bias by capturing the unknown model errors, thus improving the quality of the estimated subsurface properties for geosteering operation. Moreover, we describe a procedure for identifying inversion multimodality and propose possible solutions to alleviate it in real-time.