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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
A Causal Framework for Evaluating Deferring Systems
Filippo Palomba, Andrea Pugnana, José Manuel Alvarez, Salvatore · 2024-05-29 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Deferring systems extend supervised Machine Learning (ML) models with the possibility to defer predictions to human experts. However, evaluating the impact of a deferring strategy on system accuracy is still an overlooked area. This paper fills this gap by evaluating deferring systems through a causal lens. We link the potential outcomes framework for causal inference with deferring systems, which allows to identify the causal impact of the deferring strategy on predictive accuracy. We distinguish two scenarios. In the first one, we have access to both the human and ML model predictions for the deferred instances. Here, we can identify the individual causal effects for deferred instances and the aggregates of them. In the second one, only human predictions are available for the deferred instances. Here, we can resort to regression discontinuity designs to estimate a local causal effect. We evaluate our approach on synthetic and real datasets for seven deferring systems from the literature.