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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
When Marginals Match but Structure Fails: Covariance Fide...
Nazia Riasat · 2026-03-18 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Generative models are increasingly deployed as substitutes for real data in downstream scientific workflows, yet standard evaluation criteria remain focused on marginal distribution matching. We argue that this represents a fundamental gap: downstream inference is rarely a marginal operation, and a model that passes every univariate diagnostic can still produce structurally unreliable synthetic data. We introduce covariance-level dependence fidelity, measured by D_Sigma(P,Q) = ||Sigma_P - Sigma_Q||_F, as a principled, computable criterion for evaluating whether a generative model preserves the joint structure of data beyond its univariate marginals. Three results formalise this criterion. First, marginal fidelity provides no constraint on dependence structure: D_Sigma can be made arbitrarily large while all univariate marginals match exactly. Second, covariance divergence induces quantifiable downstream instability, including sign reversals in population regression coefficients. Third, bounding D_Sigma provides positive stability guarantees for dependence-sensitive procedures such as PCA via Davis-Kahan-type bounds. Empirical validation across three domains, image data (Fashion-MNIST VAE, n = 60,000), bulk RNA-seq (TCGA-BRCA, n = 1,111), and a small-sample stress test (Alzheimer's gene expression, n = 113), shows that D_Sigma/delta consistently distinguishes structure-discarding from structure-preserving generators in cases where standard marginal diagnostics show little separation, confirming that covariance-level fidelity provides information orthogonal to existing evaluation metrics across domains and sample sizes.