惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

A
About on SuperTechFans
博客园 - 聂微东
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
博客园 - 司徒正美
宝玉的分享
宝玉的分享
美团技术团队
量子位
The Cloudflare Blog
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
IT之家
IT之家
爱范儿
爱范儿
J
Java Code Geeks
博客园 - Franky
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
B
Blog
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
I
InfoQ
GbyAI
GbyAI
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
小众软件
小众软件
H
Help Net Security
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Calibration Bands for Mean Estimates within the Exponenti...
Łukasz Delong, Selim Gatti, Mario V. Wüthrich · 2025-03-25 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

A statistical model is said to be calibrated if the resulting mean estimates perfectly match the true means of the underlying responses. Aiming for calibration is often not achievable in practice as one has to deal with finite samples of noisy observations. A weaker notion of calibration is auto-calibration. An auto-calibrated model satisfies that the expected value of the responses for a given mean estimate matches this estimate. Testing for autocalibration has only been considered recently in the literature and we propose a new approach based on calibration bands. Calibration bands denote a set of lower and upper bounds such that the probability that the true means lie simultaneously inside those bounds exceeds some given confidence level. Such bands were constructed by Yang-Barber (2019) for sub-Gaussian distributions. Dimitriadis et al. (2023) then introduced narrower bands for the Bernoulli distribution. We use the same idea in order to extend the construction to the entire exponential dispersion family that contains for example the binomial, Poisson, negative binomial, gamma and normal distributions. Moreover, we show that the obtained calibration bands allow us to construct various tests for calibration and auto-calibration, respectively. As the construction of the bands does not rely on asymptotic results, we emphasize that our tests can be used for any sample size.