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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Robust Modeling of Unknown Dynamical Systems via Ensemble...
Victor Churchill, Steve Manns, Zhen Chen, Dongbin Xiu · 2022-03-07 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Recent work has focused on data-driven learning of the evolution of unknown systems via deep neural networks (DNNs), with the goal of conducting long time prediction of the evolution of the unknown system. Training a DNN with low generalization error is a particularly important task in this case as error is accumulated over time. Because of the inherent randomness in DNN training, chiefly in stochastic optimization, there is uncertainty in the resulting prediction, and therefore in the generalization error. Hence, the generalization error can be viewed as a random variable with some probability distribution. Well-trained DNNs, particularly those with many hyperparameters, typically result in probability distributions for generalization error with low bias but high variance. High variance causes variability and unpredictably in the results of a trained DNN. This paper presents a computational technique which decreases the variance of the generalization error, thereby improving the reliability of the DNN model to generalize consistently. In the proposed ensemble averaging method, multiple models are independently trained and model predictions are averaged at each time step. A mathematical foundation for the method is presented, including results regarding the distribution of the local truncation error. In addition, three time-dependent differential equation problems are considered as numerical examples, demonstrating the effectiveness of the method to decrease variance of DNN predictions generally.