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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Temporal Scale Estimation for Oversampled Network Cascade...
Abram Magner, Carolyn Kaminski, Petko Bogdanov · 2021-09-23 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Spreading processes on graphs arise in a host of application domains, from the study of online social networks to viral marketing to epidemiology. Various discrete-time probabilistic models for spreading processes have been proposed. These are used for downstream statistical estimation and prediction problems, often involving messages or other information that is transmitted along with infections caused by the process. It is thus important to design models of cascade observation that take into account phenomena that lead to uncertainty about the process state at any given time. We highlight one such phenomenon -- temporal distortion -- caused by a misalignment between the rate at which observations of a cascade process are made and the rate at which the process itself operates, and argue that failure to correct for it results in degradation of performance on downstream statistical tasks. To address these issues, we formulate the clock estimation problem in terms of a natural distortion measure. We give a clock estimation algorithm, which we call FastClock, that runs in linear time in the size of its input and is provably statistically accurate for a broad range of model parameters when cascades are generated from the independent cascade process with known parameters and when the underlying graph is Erdős-Rényi. We further give empirical results on the performance of our algorithm in comparison to the state of the art estimator, a likelihood proxy maximization-based estimator implemented via dynamic programming. We find that, in a broad parameter regime, our algorithm substantially outperforms the dynamic programming algorithm in terms of both running time and accuracy.