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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Conformal Prediction Adaptive to Unknown Subpopulation Sh...
Nien-Shao Wang, Duygu Nur Yaldiz, Yavuz Faruk Bakman, Sai Pranee · 2025-06-06 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation shifts, where the test environment contains a different mix of subpopulations than the calibration data. In this work, we focus on unknown subpopulation shifts where we are not given group-information i.e. the subpopulation labels of datapoints have to be inferred. We propose new methods that provably adapt conformal prediction to such shifts, ensuring valid coverage without explicit knowledge of subpopulation structure. While existing methods in similar setups assume perfect subpopulation labels, our framework explicitly relaxes this requirement and characterizes conditions where formal coverage guarantees remain feasible. Further, our algorithms scale to high-dimensional settings and remain practical in realistic machine learning tasks. Extensive experiments on vision (with vision transformers) and language (with large language models) benchmarks demonstrate that our methods reliably maintain coverage and effectively control risks in scenarios where standard conformal prediction fails.