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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Identifying Information from Observations with Uncertaint...
2025-01-16 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

A machine that learns a task from observations must encounter and process uncertainty and novelty, especially when it is to maintain performance when observing new information and to select the hypothesis that best fits the current observations. In this context, some key questions arise: what and how much information did the observations provide, how much information is required to identify the data-generating process, how many observations remain to get that information, and how does a predictor determine that it has observed novel information? We formalize identifying information to answer these questions and synthesize prior works. Identifying information are bits that verify or falsify a hypothesis as the data-generating process. In this formalization, we prove the information theoretic characteristics of the computation of hypothesis identification and the resulting sample complexity. We define hypothesis identification and sample complexity via the computation of an indicator function over a set of hypotheses, bridging algorithmic and probabilistic information. We detail the sample complexity and its properties for data-generating processes ranging from deterministic processes to ergodic stationary stochastic processes, which connect the notion of identifying information in finite steps with asymptotic statistics and PAC-learning. The indicator function's computation naturally formalizes novel information and its identification from observations with respect to a hypothesis set, which detects a misspecified hypothesis set. We also proved that a computable PAC-Bayes learners' sample complexity distribution is determined by its moments in terms of the prior probability distribution over a fixed finite hypothesis set, and thus an approximation of the sample complexity distribution is always computable within the desired precision that resources allow.