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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Early Prediction...
Xiaoli Liu, Pan Hu, Zhi Mao, Po-Chih Kuo, Peiyao Li, Chao Liu, J · 2020-01-29 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Background: Elderly patients with MODS have high risk of death and poor prognosis. The performance of current scoring systems assessing the severity of MODS and its mortality remains unsatisfactory. This study aims to develop an interpretable and generalizable model for early mortality prediction in elderly patients with MODS. Methods: The MIMIC-III, eICU-CRD and PLAGH-S databases were employed for model generation and evaluation. We used the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model with the SHapley Additive exPlanations method to conduct early and interpretable predictions of patients' hospital outcome. Three types of data source combinations and five typical evaluation indexes were adopted to develop a generalizable model. Findings: The interpretable model, with optimal performance developed by using MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD datasets, was separately validated in MIMIC-III, eICU-CRD and PLAGH-S datasets (no overlapping with training set). The performances of the model in predicting hospital mortality as validated by the three datasets were: AUC of 0.858, sensitivity of 0.834 and specificity of 0.705; AUC of 0.849, sensitivity of 0.763 and specificity of 0.784; and AUC of 0.838, sensitivity of 0.882 and specificity of 0.691, respectively. Comparisons of AUC between this model and baseline models with MIMIC-III dataset validation showed superior performances of this model; In addition, comparisons in AUC between this model and commonly used clinical scores showed significantly better performance of this model. Interpretation: The interpretable machine learning model developed in this study using fused datasets with large sample sizes was robust and generalizable. This model outperformed the baseline models and several clinical scores for early prediction of mortality in elderly ICU patients. The interpretative nature of this model provided clinicians with the ranking of mortality risk features.