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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization Sandpile Economics: Theory, Identification, and Evidence Online learning with noisy side observations Spectral Thompson sampling Covariance-adapting algorithm for semi-bandits with application to sparse rewards Ordinary Least Squares is a Special Case of Transformer Metric-Aware Principal Component Analysis (MAPCA):A Unified Framework for Scale-Invariant Representation Learning Robust Low-Rank Tensor Completion based on M-product with Weighted Correlated Total Variation and Sparse Regularization Joint Representation Learning and Clustering via Gradient-Based Manifold Optimization Universality of Gaussian-Mixture Reverse Kernels in Conditional Diffusion Interpretable and Explainable Surrogate Modeling for Simulations: A State-of-the-Art Survey and Perspectives on Explainable AI for Decision-Making Estimating Continuous Treatment Effects with Two-Stage Kernel Ridge Regression A short proof of near-linear convergence of adaptive gradient descent under fourth-order growth and convexity Some Theoretical Limitations of t-SNE Bias-Corrected Adaptive Conformal Inference for Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting Identifiability of Potentially Degenerate Gaussian Mixture Models With Piecewise Affine Mixing Rare Event Analysis via Stochastic Optimal Control Adaptive Learning via Off-Model Training and Importance Sampling for Fully Non-Markovian Optimal Stochastic Control. 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Few-shot Cross-country Generalization of Tabular Machine Learning and Foundation Models for Childhood Anemia Prediction under Distribution Shift
Yusuf Brima, Marcellin Atemkeng, Lansana Hassim Kallon, David Ni · 2026-05-26 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Childhood anemia affects around 40% of children aged 6-59 months globally and arises from heterogeneous factors, limiting model generalizability. We evaluate a transformer-based tabular foundation model against classical supervised methods under cross-country and data-scarce settings. We used DHS data from 16 countries across Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caucasus, and the Middle East (n=68,856). We compared Logistic Regression, XGBoost, LightGBM, and TabPFN v2.6. Performance was assessed using AUC-ROC, Brier score, and ECE. Generalization was evaluated using leave-one-country-out (LOCO), reverse-LOCO, and few-shot settings. Subgroup analyses included sex, age, residence, maternal education, and wealth. Feature importance was estimated using SHAP. TabPFN outperformed classical models in low-data regimes (<200 samples), showing higher discrimination and better calibration. Across countries, it achieved the lowest Brier score (0.042) and ECE (0.203). Under full-data settings, AUC-ROC ranged from 0.59-0.76 with small between-model differences ($\leq 0.05$). LOCO performance was stable (0.58-0.69), driven by country context. Reverse-LOCO showed asymmetric transferability. Subgroup performance was consistent with no systematic demographic bias. SHAP identified child age, altitude, and height-for-age z-score as dominant predictors, followed by wealth and maternal education. Performance in childhood anemia prediction is driven more by population variation than model choice. TabPFN provides advantages in low-resource settings through improved discrimination and calibration, highlighting foundation models as promising tools for data-scarce global health prediction.