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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Tree-Based Predictive Models for Noisy Input Data
Kevin McCoy, Zachary Wooten, Christine B. Peterson · 2026-03-08 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Measurement error is prevalent across all domains of scientific research where only imprecise observations, rather than the true underlying values, can be obtained. For example, estimates of human microbiome diversity are based on small samples from a much larger, generally unobserved system and reflect both sampling error and technical variation. In high-noise settings like these, it becomes difficult to make accurate predictions and to summarize uncertainty. Methods have previously been proposed to accommodate measurement error in classic predictive models, such as linear regression. However, relatively little work has been done to address measurement error in more complex and flexible models. Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), a Bayesian nonparametric model that sums the output of many decision trees, offers robust predictions with built-in uncertainty quantification. In this work, we propose measurement error BART (meBART), a novel extension to the BART model that directly incorporates measurement error in the independent variable(s). Through simulation studies, we show that in the presence of measurement error, our model enables more accurate parameter estimation, more robust uncertainty quantification, and superior predictive performance. We illustrate the utility of our proposed approach through two biomedical applications where the predictors of interest are subject to measurement error.