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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Model Comparison and Calibration Assessment: User Guide f...
Tobias Fissler, Christian Lorentzen, Michael Mayer · 2022-02-25 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

One of the main tasks of actuaries and data scientists is to build good predictive models for certain phenomena such as the claim size or the number of claims in insurance. These models ideally exploit given feature information to enhance the accuracy of prediction. This user guide revisits and clarifies statistical techniques to assess the calibration or adequacy of a model on the one hand, and to compare and rank different models on the other hand. In doing so, it emphasises the importance of specifying the prediction target functional at hand a priori (e.g. the mean or a quantile) and of choosing the scoring function in model comparison in line with this target functional. Guidance for the practical choice of the scoring function is provided. Striving to bridge the gap between science and daily practice in application, it focuses mainly on the pedagogical presentation of existing results and of best practice. The results are accompanied and illustrated by two real data case studies on workers' compensation and customer churn.