惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
罗磊的独立博客
月光博客
月光博客
GbyAI
GbyAI
腾讯CDC
G
Google Developers Blog
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
freeCodeCamp Programming Tutorials: Python, JavaScript, Git & More
U
Unit 42
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
A
About on SuperTechFans
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
C
Check Point Blog
Y
Y Combinator Blog
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Cyber Security Advisories - MS-ISAC
Microsoft Azure Blog
Microsoft Azure Blog
I
InfoQ
雷峰网
雷峰网
B
Blog RSS Feed
美团技术团队
M
MIT News - Artificial intelligence
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
D
Docker

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Evaluating Posterior Probabilities: Decision Theory, Prop...
Luciana Ferrer, Daniel Ramos · 2024-08-06 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Most machine learning classifiers are designed to output posterior probabilities for the classes given the input sample. These probabilities may be used to make the categorical decision on the class of the sample; provided as input to a downstream system; or provided to a human for interpretation. Evaluating the quality of the posteriors generated by these system is an essential problem which was addressed decades ago with the invention of proper scoring rules (PSRs). Unfortunately, much of the recent machine learning literature uses calibration metrics -- most commonly, the expected calibration error (ECE) -- as a proxy to assess posterior performance. The problem with this approach is that calibration metrics reflect only one aspect of the quality of the posteriors, ignoring the discrimination performance. For this reason, we argue that calibration metrics should play no role in the assessment of posterior quality. Expected PSRs should instead be used for this job, preferably normalized for ease of interpretation. In this work, we first give a brief review of PSRs from a practical perspective, motivating their definition using Bayes decision theory. We discuss why expected PSRs provide a principled measure of the quality of a system's posteriors and why calibration metrics are not the right tool for this job. We argue that calibration metrics, while not useful for performance assessment, may be used as diagnostic tools during system development. With this purpose in mind, we discuss a simple and practical calibration metric, called calibration loss, derived from a decomposition of expected PSRs. We compare this metric with the ECE and with the expected score divergence calibration metric from the PSR literature and argue, using theoretical and empirical evidence, that calibration loss is superior to these two metrics.