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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Generative emulation of chaotic dynamics with coherent prior
Juan Nathaniel, Pierre Gentine · 2025-04-19 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Data-driven emulation of nonlinear dynamics is challenging due to long-range skill decay that often produces physically unrealistic outputs. Recent advances in generative modeling aim to address these issues by providing uncertainty quantification and correction. However, the quality of generated simulation remains heavily dependent on the choice of conditioning priors. In this work, we present an efficient generative framework for dynamics emulation, unifying principles of turbulence with diffusion-based modeling: Cohesion. Specifically, our method estimates large-scale coherent structure of the underlying dynamics as guidance during the denoising process, where small-scale fluctuation in the flow is then resolved. These coherent priors are efficiently approximated using reduced-order models, such as deep Koopman operators, that allow for rapid generation of long prior sequences while maintaining stability over extended forecasting horizon. With this gain, we can reframe forecasting as trajectory planning, a common task in reinforcement learning, where conditional denoising is performed once over entire sequences, minimizing the computational cost of autoregressive-based generative methods. Empirical evaluations on chaotic systems of increasing complexity, including Kolmogorov flow, shallow water equations, and subseasonal-to-seasonal climate dynamics, demonstrate Cohesion superior long-range forecasting skill that can efficiently generate physically-consistent simulations, even in the presence of partially-observed guidance.