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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Optimistic Algorithms for Adaptive Estimation of the Aver...
Ojash Neopane, Aaditya Ramdas, Aarti Singh · 2025-02-07 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Estimation and inference for the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a cornerstone of causal inference and often serves as the foundation for developing procedures for more complicated settings. Although traditionally analyzed in a batch setting, recent advances in martingale theory have paved the way for adaptive methods that can enhance the power of downstream inference. Despite these advances, progress in understanding and developing adaptive algorithms remains in its early stages. Existing work either focus on asymptotic analyses that overlook exploration-exploitation tradeoffs relevant in finite-sample regimes or rely on simpler but suboptimal estimators. In this work, we address these limitations by studying adaptive sampling procedures that take advantage of the asymptotically optimal Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW) estimator. Our analysis uncovers challenges obscured by asymptotic approaches and introduces a novel algorithmic design principle reminiscent of optimism in multiarmed bandits. This principled approach enables our algorithm to achieve significant theoretical and empirical gains compared to prior methods. Our findings mark a step forward in advancing adaptive causal inference methods in theory and practice.