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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Toward Valid Generative Clinical Trial Data with Survival...
Perrine Chassat, Van Tuan Nguyen, Lucas Ducrot, Emilie Lanoy, Ag · 2025-11-21 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Clinical trials face mounting challenges: fragmented patient populations, slow enrollment, and unsustainable costs, particularly for late phase trials in oncology and rare diseases. While external control arms built from real-world data have been explored, a promising alternative is the generation of synthetic control arms using generative AI. A central challenge is the generation of time-to-event outcomes, which constitute primary endpoints in oncology and rare disease trials, but are difficult to model under censoring and small sample sizes. Existing generative approaches, largely GAN-based, are data-hungry, unstable, and rely on strong assumptions such as independent censoring. We introduce a variational autoencoder (VAE) that jointly generates mixed-type covariates and survival outcomes within a unified latent variable framework, without assuming independent censoring. Across synthetic and real trial datasets, we evaluate our model in two realistic scenarios: (i) data sharing under privacy constraints, where synthetic controls substitute for original data, and (ii) control-arm augmentation, where synthetic patients mitigate imbalances between treated and control groups. Our method outperforms GAN baselines on fidelity, utility, and privacy metrics, while revealing systematic miscalibration of type I error and power. We propose a post-generation selection procedure that improves calibration, highlighting both progress and open challenges for generative survival modeling.