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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
On the Nonasymptotic Scaling Guarantee of Hyperparameter ...
Yi Yu, Yubo Hou, Yinchong Wang, Nan Zhang, Jianfeng Feng, Wenlia · 2026-01-22 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Hierarchical Bayesian models are increasingly used in large, inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems by modeling parameters as draws from a hyperparameter-governed distribution. However, theoretical guarantees for these estimates as the system size grows have been lacking. A critical concern is that hyperparameter estimation may diverge for larger networks, undermining the model's reliability. Formulating the system's evolution in a measure transport perspective, we propose a theoretical framework for estimating hyperparameters with mean-type observations, which are prevalent in many scientific applications. Our primary contribution is a nonasymptotic bound for the deviation of estimate of hyperparameters in inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems with respect to network population size, which is established for a general family of optimization algorithms within a fixed observation duration. While we firstly establish a consistency result for systems with independent nodes, our main result extends this guarantee to the more challenging and realistic setting of weakly-dependent nodes. We validate our theoretical findings with numerical experiments on two representative models: a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model and a Spiking Neuronal Network model. In both cases, the results confirm that the estimation error decreases as the network population size increases, aligning with our theoretical guarantees. This research proposes the foundational theory to ensure that hierarchical Bayesian methods are statistically consistent for large-scale inhomogeneous systems, filling a gap in this area of theoretical research and justifying their application in practice.