惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

Blog — PlanetScale
Blog — PlanetScale
爱范儿
爱范儿
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
腾讯CDC
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
月光博客
月光博客
Engineering at Meta
Engineering at Meta
C
Check Point Blog
N
Netflix TechBlog - Medium
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
钛媒体:引领未来商业与生活新知
L
LangChain Blog
大猫的无限游戏
大猫的无限游戏
IT之家
IT之家
Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
GbyAI
GbyAI
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
Last Week in AI
Last Week in AI
B
Blog
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
让小产品的独立变现更简单 - ezindie.com
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
博客园 - 叶小钗
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
博客园 - 司徒正美

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Principles and Algorithms for Forecasting Groups of Time ...
Pablo Montero-Manso, Rob J Hyndman · 2020-08-02 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Forecasting groups of time series is of increasing practical importance, e.g. forecasting the demand for multiple products offered by a retailer or server loads within a data center. The local approach to this problem considers each time series separately and fits a function or model to each series. The global approach fits a single function to all series. For groups of similar time series, global methods outperform the more established local methods. However, recent results show good performance of global models even in heterogeneous datasets. This suggests a more general applicability of global methods, potentially leading to more accurate tools and new scenarios to study. Formalizing the setting of forecasting a set of time series with local and global methods, we provide the following contributions: 1) Global methods are not more restrictive than local methods, both can produce the same forecasts without any assumptions about similarity of the series. Global models can succeed in a wider range of problems than previously thought. 2) Basic generalization bounds for local and global algorithms. The complexity of local methods grows with the size of the set while it remains constant for global methods. In large datasets, a global algorithm can afford to be quite complex and still benefit from better generalization. These bounds serve to clarify and support recent experimental results in the field, and guide the design of new algorithms. For the class of autoregressive models, this implies that global models can have much larger memory than local methods. 3) In an extensive empirical study, purposely naive algorithms derived from these principles, such as global linear models or deep networks result in superior accuracy. In particular, global linear models can provide competitive accuracy with two orders of magnitude fewer parameters than local methods.