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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Neural-Actuarial Longevity Forecasting: Anchoring LSTMs f...
Davide Rindori · 2026-05-07 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Traditional multi-population models, such as the Li-Lee framework, rely on the assumption of mean-reverting country-specific deviations. However, recent data from high-longevity clusters suggest a systemic break in this paradigm. We identify a stationarity paradox where mortality residuals in countries like Sweden and West Germany exhibit persistent unit roots, leading to a systematic mispricing of longevity risk in linear models. To address these non-linearities, we propose Hybrid-Lift, a neural-actuarial framework that combines Hierarchical LSTM networks with a Mean-Bias Correction (MBC) anchoring mechanism. Positioned as a governance-friendly model challenger rather than a replacement of classical approaches, the framework exhibits selective superiority on out-of-sample validation (2012-2020): it outperforms Li-Lee by 17.40% in Sweden and 12.57% in West Germany, while remaining comparable for near-linear regimes such as Switzerland and Japan. We complement the predictive model with an integrated governance suite comprising SHAP-based cross-country influence mapping, a dual uncertainty framework for regulatory capital calibration (Swiss ES 99.0% of +1.153 years), and a reverse stress test identifying the critical shock threshold for solvency buffer exhaustion. This research provides evidence that neural networks, when properly anchored by actuarial principles, can serve as effective model challengers for longevity risk management under the SST and Solvency II standards.