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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
From Tail Universality to Bernstein-von Mises: A Unified ...
Sean Plummer · 2025-12-06 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) constructs approximate posteriors of the form $q(θ) = \int k(θ| z) r(dz)$, where the conditional kernel is parameterized and the mixing base is fixed and tractable. This paper develops a unified "approximation-optimization-statistics'' theory for such families. On the approximation side, we show that under compact L1-universality and a mild tail-dominance condition, semi-implicit families are dense in L1 and can achieve arbitrarily small forward Kullback-Leibler (KL) error. We also identify two sharp obstructions to global approximation: (i) an Orlicz tail-mismatch condition that induces a strictly positive forward-KL gap, and (ii) structural restrictions, such as non-autoregressive Gaussian kernels, that force "branch collapse'' in conditional distributions. For each obstruction we give a minimal structural modification that restores approximability. On the optimization side, we establish finite-sample oracle inequalities and prove that the empirical SIVI objectives L(K,n) $Γ$-converge to their population limit as n and K tend to infinity. These results give consistency of empirical maximizers, quantitative control of finite-K surrogate bias, and stability of the resulting variational posteriors. Combining the approximation and optimization analyses yields the first general end-to-end statistical theory for SIVI: we characterize precisely when SIVI can recover the target distribution, when it cannot, and how architectural and algorithmic choices govern the attainable asymptotic behavior.