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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Optimality in Mean Estimation: Beyond Worst-Case, Beyond ...
Trung Dang, Jasper C. H. Lee, Maoyuan Song, Paul Valiant · 2023-11-22 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

There is growing interest in improving our algorithmic understanding of fundamental statistical problems such as mean estimation, driven by the goal of understanding the limits of what we can extract from valuable data. The state of the art results for mean estimation in $\mathbb{R}$ are 1) the optimal sub-Gaussian mean estimator by [LV22], with the tight sub-Gaussian constant for all distributions with finite but unknown variance, and 2) the analysis of the median-of-means algorithm by [BCL13] and a lower bound by [DLLO16], characterizing the big-O optimal errors for distributions for which only a $1+α$ moment exists for $α\in (0,1)$. Both results, however, are optimal only in the worst case. We initiate the fine-grained study of the mean estimation problem: Can algorithms leverage useful features of the input distribution to beat the sub-Gaussian rate, without explicit knowledge of such features? We resolve this question with an unexpectedly nuanced answer: "Yes in limited regimes, but in general no". For any distribution $p$ with a finite mean, we construct a distribution $q$ whose mean is well-separated from $p$'s, yet $p$ and $q$ are not distinguishable with high probability, and $q$ further preserves $p$'s moments up to constants. The main consequence is that no reasonable estimator can asymptotically achieve better than the sub-Gaussian error rate for any distribution, matching the worst-case result of [LV22]. More generally, we introduce a new definitional framework to analyze the fine-grained optimality of algorithms, which we call "neighborhood optimality", interpolating between the unattainably strong "instance optimality" and the trivially weak "admissibility" definitions. Applying the new framework, we show that median-of-means is neighborhood optimal, up to constant factors. It is open to find a neighborhood-optimal estimator without constant factor slackness.