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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
EnTransformer: A Deep Generative Transformer for Multivar...
Rajdeep Pathak, Rahul Goswami, Madhurima Panja, Palash Ghosh, Ta · 2026-03-12 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical in multivariate time series forecasting problems arising in domains such as energy systems and transportation networks, among many others. Although Transformer-based architectures have recently achieved strong performance for sequence modeling, most probabilistic forecasting approaches rely on restrictive parametric likelihoods or quantile-based objectives. They can struggle to capture complex joint predictive distributions across multiple correlated time series. This work proposes EnTransformer, a deep generative forecasting framework that integrates engression, a stochastic learning paradigm for modeling conditional distributions, with the expressive sequence modeling capabilities of Transformers. The proposed approach injects stochastic noise into the model representation and optimizes an energy-based scoring objective to directly learn the conditional predictive distribution without imposing parametric assumptions. This design enables EnTransformer to generate coherent multivariate forecast trajectories while preserving Transformers' capacity to effectively model long-range temporal dependencies and cross-series interactions. We evaluate our proposed EnTransformer on several widely used benchmarks for multivariate probabilistic forecasting, including Electricity, Traffic, Solar, Taxi, KDD-cup, and Wikipedia datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that EnTransformer produces well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts and consistently outperforms the benchmark models.