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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Causal Multi-Task Demand Learning
Varun Gupta, Vijay Kamble · 2026-02-11 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We study a canonical multi-task demand-learning problem motivated by retail pricing, where a firm seeks to estimate heterogeneous linear price-response functions across multiple decision contexts. Each context is described by rich covariates but exhibits limited price variation, motivating transfer learning across tasks. A central challenge in leveraging cross-task transfer is endogeneity: prices may be arbitrarily correlated with unobserved task-level demand determinants across tasks. We propose a new meta-learning framework that identifies the conditional mean of task-specific causal demand parameters given a subset of task-specific observables despite such confounding, assuming that each task contains at least two distinct locally exogenous price points. This subset is carefully designed to include all of the prices to address cross-task confounding, while masking two demand outcomes that provide randomized supervision to address identifiability issues arising from the inclusion of all prices. We show that this information design is maximally uniformly valid, in that any refinement of the conditioning set that reveals withheld-outcome information is not guaranteed to identify the conditional mean causal target. We validate our method on real and synthetic data, demonstrating improved recovery of demand responses relative to standard transfer-learning baselines.