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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Closed-form Filtering for Non-linear Systems
Théophile Cantelobre, Carlo Ciliberto, Benjamin Guedj, Alessandr · 2024-02-15 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as the tabular setting or for linear dynamical systems with gaussian noise. In this work, we propose a new class of filters based on Gaussian PSD Models, which offer several advantages in terms of density approximation and computational efficiency. We show that filtering can be efficiently performed in closed form when transitions and observations are Gaussian PSD Models. When the transition and observations are approximated by Gaussian PSD Models, we show that our proposed estimator enjoys strong theoretical guarantees, with estimation error that depends on the quality of the approximation and is adaptive to the regularity of the transition probabilities. In particular, we identify regimes in which our proposed filter attains a TV $ε$-error with memory and computational complexity of $O(ε^{-1})$ and $O(ε^{-3/2})$ respectively, including the offline learning step, in contrast to the $O(ε^{-2})$ complexity of sampling methods such as particle filtering.