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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Adaptive Shrinkage Estimation For Personalized Deep Kerne...
Vasiliki Tassopoulou, Haochang Shou, Christos Davatzikos · 2025-04-11 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Longitudinal biomedical studies monitor individuals over time to capture dynamics in brain development, disease progression, and treatment effects. However, estimating trajectories of brain biomarkers is challenging due to biological variability, inconsistencies in measurement protocols (e.g., differences in MRI scanners), scarcity, and irregularity in longitudinal measurements. Herein, we introduce a novel personalized deep kernel regression framework for forecasting brain biomarkers, with application to regional volumetric measurements. Our approach integrates two key components: a population model that captures brain trajectories from a large and diverse cohort, and a subject-specific model that captures individual trajectories. To optimally combine these, we propose Adaptive Shrinkage Estimation, which effectively balances population and subject-specific models. We assess our model's performance through predictive accuracy metrics, uncertainty quantification, and validation against external clinical studies. Benchmarking against state-of-the-art statistical and machine learning models -- including linear mixed effects models, generalized additive models, and deep learning methods -- demonstrates the superior predictive performance of our approach. Additionally, we apply our method to predict trajectories of composite neuroimaging biomarkers, which highlights the versatility of our approach in modeling the progression of longitudinal neuroimaging biomarkers. Furthermore, validation on three external neuroimaging studies confirms the robustness of our method across different clinical contexts. We make the code available at https://github.com/vatass/AdaptiveShrinkageDKGP.