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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Logarithmic Neyman Regret for Adaptive Estimation of the ...
Ojash Neopane, Aaditya Ramdas, Aarti Singh · 2024-11-22 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a core problem in causal inference with strong connections to Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning. This paper considers the problem of adaptively selecting the treatment allocation probability in order to improve estimation of the ATE. The majority of prior work on adaptive ATE estimation focus on asymptotic guarantees, and in turn overlooks important practical considerations such as the difficulty of learning the optimal treatment allocation as well as hyper-parameter selection. Existing non-asymptotic methods are limited by poor empirical performance and exponential scaling of the Neyman regret with respect to problem parameters. In order to address these gaps, we propose and analyze the Clipped Second Moment Tracking (ClipSMT) algorithm, a variant of an existing algorithm with strong asymptotic optimality guarantees, and provide finite sample bounds on its Neyman regret. Our analysis shows that ClipSMT achieves exponential improvements in Neyman regret on two fronts: improving the dependence on $T$ from $O(\sqrt{T})$ to $O(\log T)$, as well as reducing the exponential dependence on problem parameters to a polynomial dependence. Finally, we conclude with simulations which show the marked improvement of ClipSMT over existing approaches.