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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Modelling the COVID-19 virus evolution with Incremental M...
Andrés L. Suárez-Cetrulo, Ankit Kumar, Luis Miralles-Pechuán · 2021-04-15 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The investment of time and resources for better strategies and methodologies to tackle a potential pandemic is key to deal with potential outbreaks of new variants or other viruses in the future. In this work, we recreated the scene of a year ago, 2020, when the pandemic erupted across the world for the fifty countries with more COVID-19 cases reported. We performed some experiments in which we compare state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, such as LSTM, against online incremental machine learning algorithms to adapt them to the daily changes in the spread of the disease and predict future COVID-19 cases. To compare the methods, we performed three experiments: In the first one, we trained the models using only data from the country we predicted. In the second one, we use data from all fifty countries to train and predict each of them. In the first and second experiment, we used a static hold-out approach for all methods. In the third experiment, we trained the incremental methods sequentially, using a prequential evaluation. This scheme is not suitable for most state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms because they need to be retrained from scratch for every batch of predictions, causing a computational burden. Results show that incremental methods are a promising approach to adapt to changes of the disease over time; they are always up to date with the last state of the data distribution, and they have a significantly lower computational cost than other techniques such as LSTMs.