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Unit 42

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Practical estimation of the optimal classification error ...
Ryota Ushio, Takashi Ishida, Masashi Sugiyama · 2025-05-27 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

While the performance of machine learning systems has experienced significant improvement in recent years, relatively little attention has been paid to the fundamental question: to what extent can we improve our models? This paper provides a means of answering this question in the setting of binary classification, which is practical and theoretically supported. We extend a previous work that utilizes soft labels for estimating the Bayes error, the optimal error rate, in two important ways. First, we theoretically investigate the properties of the bias of the hard-label-based estimator discussed in the original work. We reveal that the decay rate of the bias is adaptive to how well the two class-conditional distributions are separated, and it can decay significantly faster than the previous result suggested as the number of hard labels per instance grows. Second, we tackle a more challenging problem setting: estimation with corrupted soft labels. One might be tempted to use calibrated soft labels instead of clean ones. However, we reveal that calibration guarantee is not enough, that is, even perfectly calibrated soft labels can result in a substantially inaccurate estimate. Then, we show that isotonic calibration can provide a statistically consistent estimator under an assumption weaker than that of the previous work. Our method is instance-free, i.e., we do not assume access to any input instances. This feature allows it to be adopted in practical scenarios where the instances are not available due to privacy issues. Experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets show the validity of our methods and theory. The code is available at https://github.com/RyotaUshio/bayes-error-estimation.