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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Fast Online Changepoint Detection
Fabrizio Ghezzi, Eduardo Rossi, Lorenzo Trapani · 2024-02-07 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We study online changepoint detection in the context of a linear regression model. We propose a class of heavily weighted statistics based on the CUSUM process of the regression residuals, which are specifically designed to ensure timely detection of breaks occurring early on during the monitoring horizon. We subsequently propose a class of composite statistics, constructed using different weighing schemes; the decision rule to mark a changepoint is based on the largest statistic across the various weights, thus effectively working like a veto-based voting mechanism, which ensures fast detection irrespective of the location of the changepoint. Our theory is derived under a very general form of weak dependence, thus being able to apply our tests to virtually all time series encountered in economics, medicine, and other applied sciences. Monte Carlo simulations show that our methodologies are able to control the procedure-wise Type I Error, and have short detection delays in the presence of breaks.