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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Spectral Bayesian Regression on the Sphere
Claudio Durastanti · 2026-01-28 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We develop a fully intrinsic Bayesian framework for nonparametric regression on the unit sphere based on isotropic Gaussian field priors and the harmonic structure induced by the Laplace-Beltrami operator. Under uniform random design, the regression model admits an exact diagonalization in the spherical harmonic basis, yielding a Gaussian sequence representation with frequency-dependent multiplicities. Exploiting this structure, we derive closed-form posterior distributions, optimal spectral truncation schemes, and sharp posterior contraction rates under integrated squared loss. For Gaussian priors with polynomially decaying angular power spectra, including spherical Matérn priors, we establish posterior contraction rates over Sobolev classes, which are minimax-optimal under correct prior calibration. We further show that the posterior mean admits an exact variational characterization as a geometrically intrinsic penalized least-squares estimator, equivalent to a Laplace-Beltrami smoothing spline.