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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Data-driven Calibration Sample Selection and Forecast Com...
Tomasz Serafin, Weronika Nitka · 2025-10-16 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Calibration sample selection and forecast combination are two simple yet powerful tools used in forecasting. They can be combined with a variety of models to significantly improve prediction accuracy, at the same time offering easy implementation and low computational complexity. While their effectiveness has been repeatedly confirmed in prior scientific literature, the topic is still underexplored in the field of electricity price forecasting. In this research article we apply the Autoregressive Hybrid Nearest Neighbors (ARHNN) method to three long-term time series describing the German, Spanish and New England electricity markets. We show that it outperforms popular literature benchmarks in terms of forecast accuracy by up to 10%. We also propose two simplified variants of the method, granting a vast decrease in computation time with only minor loss of prediction accuracy. Finally, we compare the forecasts' performance in a battery storage system trading case study. We find that using a forecast-driven strategy can achieve up to 80% of theoretical maximum profits while trading, demonstrating business value in practical applications.