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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Making Progress Based on False Discoveries
Roi Livni · 2022-04-19 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The study of adaptive data analysis examines how many statistical queries can be answered accurately using a fixed dataset while avoiding false discoveries (statistically inaccurate answers). In this paper, we tackle a question that precedes the field of study: Is data only valuable when it provides accurate answers to statistical queries? To answer this question, we use Stochastic Convex Optimization as a case study. In this model, algorithms are considered as analysts who query an estimate of the gradient of a noisy function at each iteration and move towards its minimizer. It is known that $O(1/ε^2)$ examples can be used to minimize the objective function, but none of the existing methods depend on the accuracy of the estimated gradients along the trajectory. Therefore, we ask: How many samples are needed to minimize a noisy convex function if we require $ε$-accurate estimates of $O(1/ε^2)$ gradients? Or, might it be that inaccurate gradient estimates are \emph{necessary} for finding the minimum of a stochastic convex function at an optimal statistical rate? We provide two partial answers to this question. First, we show that a general analyst (queries that may be maliciously chosen) requires $Ω(1/ε^3)$ samples, ruling out the possibility of a foolproof mechanism. Second, we show that, under certain assumptions on the oracle, $\tilde Ω(1/ε^{2.5})$ samples are necessary for gradient descent to interact with the oracle. Our results are in contrast to classical bounds that show that $O(1/ε^2)$ samples can optimize the population risk to an accuracy of $O(ε)$, but with spurious gradients.