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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Score-based generative emulation of impact-relevant Earth...
Shahine Bouabid, Andre Nogueira Souza, Raffaele Ferrari · 2025-10-06 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Policy targets evolve faster than the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project cycles, complicating adaptation and mitigation planning that must often contend with outdated projections. Climate model output emulators address this gap by offering inexpensive surrogates that can rapidly explore alternative futures while staying close to Earth System Model (ESM) behavior. The focus is on emulators designed to provide inputs to impact models. Using monthly ESM fields of near-surface temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed, it is shown that deep generative models have the potential to model the joint distribution of variables relevant for impacts. The specific model proposed uses score-based diffusion on a spherical mesh and runs on a single mid-range graphical processing unit. A thorough suite of diagnostics is introduced to compare emulator outputs with their parent ESMs, including their probability densities, cross-variable correlations, time of emergence, or tail behavior. The emulator performance is evaluated across three distinct ESMs in both pre-industrial and forced regimes. The results show that the emulator produces distributions that closely match the ESM outputs and captures key forced responses. They also reveal important failure cases, notably for variables with a strong regime shift in the seasonal cycle. Although not a perfect match to the ESM, the inaccuracies of the emulator are small relative to the magnitude of internal variability in ESM projections. This suggests that the generative emulators can be useful in supporting impact assessment. Priorities for future development toward daily resolution, finer spatial scales, and bias-aware training are discussed. Code is made available at https://github.com/shahineb/climemu.