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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Constructing Confidence Intervals for 'the' Generalizatio...
Hannah Schulz-Kümpel, Sebastian Fischer, Roman Hornung, Anne-Lau · 2024-09-27 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

When assessing the quality of prediction models in machine learning, confidence intervals (CIs) for the generalization error, which measures predictive performance, are a crucial tool. Luckily, there exist many methods for computing such CIs and new promising approaches are continuously being proposed. Typically, these methods combine various resampling procedures, most popular among them cross-validation and bootstrapping, with different variance estimation techniques. Unfortunately, however, there is currently no consensus on when any of these combinations may be most reliably employed and how they generally compare. In this work, we conduct a large-scale study comparing CIs for the generalization error, the first one of such size, where we empirically evaluate 13 different CI methods on a total of 19 tabular regression and classification problems, using seven different inducers and a total of eight loss functions. We give an overview of the methodological foundations and inherent challenges of constructing CIs for the generalization error and provide a concise review of all 13 methods in a unified framework. Finally, the CI methods are evaluated in terms of their relative coverage frequency, width, and runtime. Based on these findings, we can identify a subset of methods that we would recommend. We also publish the datasets as a benchmarking suite on OpenML and our code on GitHub to serve as a basis for further studies.