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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Identification of Probability weighted ARX models with ar...
Alessandro Brusaferri, Matteo Matteucci, Stefano Spinelli · 2020-09-29 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Hybrid system identification is a key tool to achieve reliable models of Cyber-Physical Systems from data. PieceWise Affine models guarantees universal approximation, local linearity and equivalence to other classes of hybrid system. Still, PWA identification is a challenging problem, requiring the concurrent solution of regression and classification tasks. In this work, we focus on the identification of PieceWise Auto Regressive with eXogenous input models with arbitrary regions (NPWARX), thus not restricted to polyhedral domains, and characterized by discontinuous maps. To this end, we propose a method based on a probabilistic mixture model, where the discrete state is represented through a multinomial distribution conditioned by the input regressors. The architecture is conceived following the Mixture of Expert concept, developed within the machine learning field. To achieve nonlinear partitioning, we parametrize the discriminant function using a neural network. Then, the parameters of both the ARX submodels and the classifier are concurrently estimated by maximizing the likelihood of the overall model using Expectation Maximization. The proposed method is demonstrated on a nonlinear piece-wise problem with discontinuous maps.