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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Statistical and Machine Learning Models for Predicting Fi...
Dilli Prasad Sharma, Nasim Beigi-Mohammadi, Hongxiang Geng, Dawn · 2024-02-15 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Emergency events in a city cause considerable economic loss to individuals, their families, and the community. Accurate and timely prediction of events can help the emergency fire and rescue services in preparing for and mitigating the consequences of emergency events. In this paper, we present a systematic development of predictive models for various types of emergency events in the City of Edmonton, Canada. We present methods for (i) data collection and dataset development; (ii) descriptive analysis of each event type and its characteristics at different spatiotemporal levels; (iii) feature analysis and selection based on correlation coefficient analysis and feature importance analysis; and (iv) development of prediction models for the likelihood of occurrence of each event type at different temporal and spatial resolutions. We analyze the association of event types with socioeconomic and demographic data at the neighborhood level, identify a set of predictors for each event type, and develop predictive models with negative binomial regression. We conduct evaluations at neighborhood and fire station service area levels. Our results show that the models perform well for most of the event types with acceptable prediction errors for weekly and monthly periods. The evaluation shows that the prediction accuracy is consistent at the level of the fire station, so the predictions can be used in management by fire rescue service departments for planning resource allocation for these time periods. We also examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the occurrence of events and on the accuracy of event predictor models. Our findings show that COVID-19 had a significant impact on the performance of the event prediction models.