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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Penalized Estimation and Forecasting of Multiple Subject ...
Zachary F. Fisher, Younghoon Kim, Barbara Fredrickson, Vladas Pi · 2020-07-10 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Intensive Longitudinal Data (ILD) is increasingly available to social and behavioral scientists. With this increased availability come new opportunities for modeling and predicting complex biological, behavioral, and physiological phenomena. Despite these new opportunities psychological researchers have not taken full advantage of promising opportunities inherent to this data, the potential to forecast psychological processes at the individual level. To address this gap in the literature we present a novel modeling framework that addresses a number of topical challenges and open questions in the psychological literature on modeling dynamic processes. First, how can we model and forecast ILD when the length of individual time series and the number of variables collected are roughly equivalent, or when time series lengths are shorter than what is typically required for time series analyses? Second, how can we best take advantage of the cross-sectional (between-person) information inherent to most ILD scenarios while acknowledging individuals differ both quantitatively (e.g. in parameter magnitude) and qualitatively (e.g. in structural dynamics)? Despite the acknowledged between-person heterogeneity in many psychological processes is it possible to leverage group-level information to support improved forecasting at the individual level? In the remainder of the manuscript, we attempt to address these and other pressing questions relevant to the forecasting of multiple-subject ILD.