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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Anomaly Detection at Scale: The Case for Deep Distributio...
Fadhel Ayed, Lorenzo Stella, Tim Januschowski, Jan Gasthaus · 2020-07-30 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

This paper introduces a new methodology for detecting anomalies in time series data, with a primary application to monitoring the health of (micro-) services and cloud resources. The main novelty in our approach is that instead of modeling time series consisting of real values or vectors of real values, we model time series of probability distributions over real values (or vectors). This extension to time series of probability distributions allows the technique to be applied to the common scenario where the data is generated by requests coming in to a service, which is then aggregated at a fixed temporal frequency. Our method is amenable to streaming anomaly detection and scales to monitoring for anomalies on millions of time series. We show the superior accuracy of our method on synthetic and public real-world data. On the Yahoo Webscope data set, we outperform the state of the art in 3 out of 4 data sets and we show that we outperform popular open-source anomaly detection tools by up to 17% average improvement for a real-world data set.