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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Transforming Conditional Density Estimation Into a Single...
Alexander G. Reisach, Olivier Collier, Alex Luedtke, Antoine Cha · 2025-11-24 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We propose a way of transforming the problem of conditional density estimation into a single nonparametric regression task via the introduction of auxiliary samples. This allows leveraging regression methods that work well in high dimensions, such as neural networks and decision trees. Our main theoretical result characterizes and establishes the convergence of our estimator to the true conditional density in the data limit. We develop condensité, a method that implements this approach. We demonstrate the benefit of the auxiliary samples on synthetic data and showcase that condensité can achieve good out-of-the-box results. We evaluate our method on a large population survey dataset and on a satellite imaging dataset. In both cases, we find that condensité matches or outperforms the state of the art and yields conditional densities in line with established findings in the literature on each dataset. Our contribution opens up new possibilities for regression-based conditional density estimation and the empirical results indicate strong promise for applied research.