惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

罗磊的独立博客
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
奇客Solidot–传递最新科技情报
有赞技术团队
有赞技术团队
J
Java Code Geeks
T
The Blog of Author Tim Ferriss
MyScale Blog
MyScale Blog
人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
U
Unit 42
The GitHub Blog
The GitHub Blog
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
H
Hackread – Cybersecurity News, Data Breaches, AI and More
酷 壳 – CoolShell
酷 壳 – CoolShell
博客园 - 三生石上(FineUI控件)
Apple Machine Learning Research
Apple Machine Learning Research
小众软件
小众软件
Hugging Face - Blog
Hugging Face - Blog
博客园 - 司徒正美
腾讯CDC
I
InfoQ
GbyAI
GbyAI
博客园_首页

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
SMURF-THP: Score Matching-based UnceRtainty quantiFicatio...
Zichong Li, Yanbo Xu, Simiao Zuo, Haoming Jiang, Chao Zhang, Tuo · 2023-10-25 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Transformer Hawkes process models have shown to be successful in modeling event sequence data. However, most of the existing training methods rely on maximizing the likelihood of event sequences, which involves calculating some intractable integral. Moreover, the existing methods fail to provide uncertainty quantification for model predictions, e.g., confidence intervals for the predicted event's arrival time. To address these issues, we propose SMURF-THP, a score-based method for learning Transformer Hawkes process and quantifying prediction uncertainty. Specifically, SMURF-THP learns the score function of events' arrival time based on a score-matching objective that avoids the intractable computation. With such a learned score function, we can sample arrival time of events from the predictive distribution. This naturally allows for the quantification of uncertainty by computing confidence intervals over the generated samples. We conduct extensive experiments in both event type prediction and uncertainty quantification of arrival time. In all the experiments, SMURF-THP outperforms existing likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration while exhibiting comparable prediction accuracy.