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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Recursive Inference for Heterogeneous Multi-Output GP Sta...
Tengjie Zheng, Jilan Mei, Di Wu, Lin Cheng, Shengping Gong · 2025-10-17 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Accurate learning of system dynamics is becoming increasingly crucial for advanced control and decision-making in engineering. However, real-world systems often exhibit multiple channels and highly nonlinear transition dynamics, challenging traditional modeling methods. To enable online learning for these systems, this paper formulates the system as Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) and develops a recursive learning method. The main contributions are threefold. First, a heterogeneous multi-output kernel is designed, allowing each output dimension to adopt distinct kernel types, hyperparameters, and input variables, improving expressiveness in multi-dimensional dynamics learning. Second, an inducing-point management algorithm enhances computational efficiency through independent selection and pruning for each output dimension. Third, a unified recursive inference framework for GPSSMs is derived, supporting general moment matching approaches, including the extended Kalman filter (EKF), unscented Kalman filter (UKF), and assumed density filtering (ADF), enabling accurate learning under strong nonlinearity and significant noise. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed method matches the accuracy of SOTA offline GPSSMs with only 1/100 of the runtime, and surpasses SOTA online GPSSMs by around 70% in accuracy under heavy noise while using only 1/20 of the runtime.