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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Aleatoric uncertainty for Errors-in-Variables models in d...
Jörg Martin, Clemens Elster · 2021-05-19 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

A Bayesian treatment of deep learning allows for the computation of uncertainties associated with the predictions of deep neural networks. We show how the concept of Errors-in-Variables can be used in Bayesian deep regression to also account for the uncertainty associated with the input of the employed neural network. The presented approach thereby exploits a relevant, but generally overlooked, source of uncertainty and yields a decomposition of the predictive uncertainty into an aleatoric and epistemic part that is more complete and, in many cases, more consistent from a statistical perspective. We discuss the approach along various simulated and real examples and observe that using an Errors-in-Variables model leads to an increase in the uncertainty while preserving the prediction performance of models without Errors-in-Variables. For examples with known regression function we observe that this ground truth is substantially better covered by the Errors-in-Variables model, indicating that the presented approach leads to a more reliable uncertainty estimation.