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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
PhysVarMix: Physics-Informed Variational Mixture Model fo...
Haichuan Li, Tomi Westerlund · 2025-07-26 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Accurate prediction of future agent trajectories is a critical challenge for ensuring safe and efficient autonomous navigation, particularly in complex urban environments characterized by multiple plausible future scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel hybrid approach that integrates learning-based with physics-based constraints to address the multi-modality inherent in trajectory prediction. Our method employs a variational Bayesian mixture model to effectively capture the diverse range of potential future behaviors, moving beyond traditional unimodal assumptions. Unlike prior approaches that predominantly treat trajectory prediction as a data-driven regression task, our framework incorporates physical realism through sector-specific boundary conditions and Model Predictive Control (MPC)-based smoothing. These constraints ensure that predicted trajectories are not only data-consistent but also physically plausible, adhering to kinematic and dynamic principles. Furthermore, our method produces interpretable and diverse trajectory predictions, enabling enhanced downstream decision-making and planning in autonomous driving systems. We evaluate our approach on two benchmark datasets, demonstrating superior performance compared to existing methods. Comprehensive ablation studies validate the contributions of each component and highlight their synergistic impact on prediction accuracy and reliability. By balancing data-driven insights with physics-informed constraints, our approach offers a robust and scalable solution for navigating the uncertainties of real-world urban environments.