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Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Monte Carlo Filtering Objectives: A New Family of Variati...
Shuangshuang Chen, Sihao Ding, Yiannis Karayiannidis, Mårten Bjö · 2021-05-20 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Learning generative models and inferring latent trajectories have shown to be challenging for time series due to the intractable marginal likelihoods of flexible generative models. It can be addressed by surrogate objectives for optimization. We propose Monte Carlo filtering objectives (MCFOs), a family of variational objectives for jointly learning parametric generative models and amortized adaptive importance proposals of time series. MCFOs extend the choices of likelihood estimators beyond Sequential Monte Carlo in state-of-the-art objectives, possess important properties revealing the factors for the tightness of objectives, and allow for less biased and variant gradient estimates. We demonstrate that the proposed MCFOs and gradient estimations lead to efficient and stable model learning, and learned generative models well explain data and importance proposals are more sample efficient on various kinds of time series data.