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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
A Nonparametric Bayes Approach to Online Activity Prediction
Mario Beraha, Lorenzo Masoero, Stefano Favaro, Thomas S. Richard · 2024-01-26 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Accurately predicting the onset of specific activities within defined timeframes holds significant importance in several applied contexts. In particular, accurate prediction of the number of future users that will be exposed to an intervention is an important piece of information for experimenters running online experiments (A/B tests). In this work, we propose a novel approach to predict the number of users that will be active in a given time period, as well as the temporal trajectory needed to attain a desired user participation threshold. We model user activity using a Bayesian nonparametric approach which allows us to capture the underlying heterogeneity in user engagement. We derive closed-form expressions for the number of new users expected in a given period, and a simple Monte Carlo algorithm targeting the posterior distribution of the number of days needed to attain a desired number of users; the latter is important for experimental planning. We illustrate the performance of our approach via several experiments on synthetic and real world data, in which we show that our novel method outperforms existing competitors.