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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Consistent Long-Term Forecasting of Ergodic Dynamical Sys...
Prune Inzerilli, Vladimir Kostic, Karim Lounici, Pietro Novelli, · 2023-12-21 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

We study the evolution of distributions under the action of an ergodic dynamical system, which may be stochastic in nature. By employing tools from Koopman and transfer operator theory one can evolve any initial distribution of the state forward in time, and we investigate how estimators of these operators perform on long-term forecasting. Motivated by the observation that standard estimators may fail at this task, we introduce a learning paradigm that neatly combines classical techniques of eigenvalue deflation from operator theory and feature centering from statistics. This paradigm applies to any operator estimator based on empirical risk minimization, making them satisfy learning bounds which hold uniformly on the entire trajectory of future distributions, and abide to the conservation of mass for each of the forecasted distributions. Numerical experiments illustrates the advantages of our approach in practice.