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stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
How Much is Unseen Depends Chiefly on Information About t...
Seongmin Lee, Marcel Böhme · 2024-02-09 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

The missing mass refers to the proportion of data points in an unknown population of classifier inputs that belong to classes not present in the classifier's training data, which is assumed to be a random sample from that unknown population. We find that in expectation the missing mass is entirely determined by the number $f_k$ of classes that do appear in the training data the same number of times and an exponentially decaying error. While this is the first precise characterization of the expected missing mass in terms of the sample, the induced estimator suffers from an impractically high variance. However, our theory suggests a large search space of nearly unbiased estimators that can be searched effectively and efficiently. Hence, we cast distribution-free estimation as an optimization problem to find a distribution-specific estimator with a minimized mean-squared error (MSE), given only the sample. In our experiments, our search algorithm discovers estimators that have a substantially smaller MSE than the state-of-the-art Good-Turing estimator. This holds for over 93% of runs when there are at least as many samples as classes. Our estimators' MSE is roughly 80% of the Good-Turing estimator's.