惯性聚合 高效追踪和阅读你感兴趣的博客、新闻、科技资讯
阅读原文 在惯性聚合中打开

推荐订阅源

人人都是产品经理
人人都是产品经理
aimingoo的专栏
aimingoo的专栏
Y
Y Combinator Blog
B
Blog
D
Docker
C
Check Point Blog
A
About on SuperTechFans
云风的 BLOG
云风的 BLOG
F
Fortinet All Blogs
Stack Overflow Blog
Stack Overflow Blog
Recent Announcements
Recent Announcements
MongoDB | Blog
MongoDB | Blog
WordPress大学
WordPress大学
Jina AI
Jina AI
罗磊的独立博客
月光博客
月光博客
博客园 - Franky
L
LangChain Blog
H
Help Net Security
Google DeepMind News
Google DeepMind News
Microsoft Security Blog
Microsoft Security Blog
小众软件
小众软件
T
Tailwind CSS Blog
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻
OSCHINA 社区最新新闻

stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Adaptive multi-fidelity optimization with fast learning rates Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model The Harder Path: Last Iterate Convergence for Uncoupled Learning in Zero-Sum Games with Bandit Feedback Stylistic-STORM (ST-STORM) : Perceiving the Semantic Nature of Appearance Collective Kernel EFT for Pre-activation ResNets PRIM-cipal components analysis One-Shot Generative Flows: Existence and Obstructions Structural interpretability in SVMs with truncated orthogonal polynomial kernels Amortized Optimal Transport from Sliced Potentials MinShap: A Modified Shapley Value Approach for Feature Selection Unsupervised feature selection using Bayesian Tucker decomposition Multi-User mmWave Beam and Rate Adaptation via Combinatorial Satisficing Bandits Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring Lightweight Geometric Adaptation for Training Physics-Informed Neural Networks Gating Enables Curvature: A Geometric Expressivity Gap in Attention Zeroth-Order Optimization at the Edge of Stability Differentially Private Conformal Prediction CLion: Efficient Cautious Lion Optimizer with Enhanced Generalization Generative Augmented Inference Improving Machine Learning Performance with Synthetic Augmentation PAC-MCTS: Bias-Aware Pruning for Robust LLM-Guided Search and Planning Path-Sampled Integrated Gradients Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model Momentum Further Constrains Sharpness at the Edge of Stochastic Stability Multistage Conditional Compositional Optimization BOAT: Navigating the Sea of In Silico Predictors for Antibody Design via Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization
Truthful Calibration Errors for Multi-Class Prediction
Yuxuan Lu, Yifan Wu, Jason Hartline, Lunjia Hu · 2025-10-08 · via stat.ML updates on arXiv.org

Calibrated predictions are useful because their numerical values can be interpreted as probabilities. Calibration errors are therefore widely used to evaluate, compare, and tune probabilistic predictors. Recently, Haghtalab et al. (2024) introduced an additional requirement for such measures: truthfulness. A calibration measure is truthful if a predictor minimizes its expected measured error by reporting the true conditional label distribution. Many standard empirical calibration errors are non-truthful: a predictor may appear better calibrated by distorting its probabilities rather than reporting them truthfully. We study the practical role of truthfulness for calibration measurement in multiclass prediction. First, we introduce perfectly truthful calibration errors for multidimensional linear properties of the label distribution, generalizing the truthful calibration error for binary predictions in Hartline et al. (2025). This framework includes full multiclass calibration and classwise calibration. We also identify a truthful correction for confidence calibration. Second, we characterize the decision-theoretic implications of these truthful errors. For calibrated predictors, truthful calibration errors preserve the Blackwell dominance: a more informative calibrated predictor receives no larger expected error. Third, we show that this decision-theoretic interpretation explains and mitigates the well-observed ranking robustness problem of binned calibration errors. Empirically, non-truthful confidence-based errors can reverse model rankings when the number of bins changes, while our truthful errors give more stable rankings across binning choices.